The Goff Report – 2017 Year in Review – Cumberland and York Counties, Maine

Local Market Update for Cumberland and York Counties, Maine

This month’s Goff Report contains the typical quarterly review, but I’ve added a bonus “Year in Review” where I drill down into stats with individual towns. Let’s start with a quarterly review of both Cumberland and York Counties. See the table below for statistics of the last quarter of real estate sales.

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Quarter Update

Cumberland County, Maine

October-December 2017

October-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Number of Sales

1067

1048

1.81%

Median Sale Price

$280,000

$260,000

7.69%

Median Days on the Market

32

23

39.13%

Number of New Listings

866

810

6.91%

 

York County, Maine

October-December 2017

October-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Number of Sales

877

684

28.22%

Median Sale Price

$264,000

$250,000

5.60%

Median Days on the Market

37

41

-9.76%

Number of New Listings

675

645

4.65%

Local Market Update for Cumberland and York Counties, Maine – Year in Review

Okay, onto the year in review. Why did I stick with Cumberland and York Counties? These are the counties where I do the most business. Sure, I’ve sold homes in Sagadahoc and Androscoggin Counties, and even a couple in Knox County, but Cumberland and York Counties are where I work most. The Maine Association of REALTORS® publishes statewide statistics, but I feel these are misleading. Real estate trends are local, and can vary from county to county, town to town, and even neighborhood to neighborhood. The real estate market in Presque Isle is vastly different from the market in Portland. Though the statewide statistics do tell a story, it doesn’t paint an accurate picture of the local real estate market. The same could be said about the counties I use. As you’ll see below in the town-by-town breakout, the market in Gray is vastly different than the market in Falmouth (take a look at the median sales price), even though they are separated by just one town. That’s why for the “Year in Review” I have isolated some of Portland’s surrounding towns to give you a better idea of the market in your hometown. Did I skip your hometown? Let me know, and I’ll add it to the list.

See the images and tables below for annual real estate statistics for Cumberland and York Counties **Oops, on the email I sent out I inadvertently showed that New Listings had increased in 2017 for Cumberland County. This has been corrected below. **:

  

Yearly Update – 2017 vs. 2016

Cumberland County, Maine

January-December 2017

January-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Number of Sales

4135

4305

-3.95%

Median Sale Price

$315,000

$295,000

6.78%

Median Days on the Market

18

21

-14.29%

Number of New Listings

5272

5571

-5.37

 

York County, Maine

October-December 2017

October-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Number of Sales

3147

3149

-0.06%

Median Sale Price

$297,500

$279,000

6.63%

Median Days on the Market

26

36

-27.78%

Number of New Listings

4252

4385

-3.03%

Monthly Comparisons

Let’s look at it month-by-month. This time, we’ll look just at Median Sales Price and Number of New Listings.  Here’s Cumberland County:

You’ll see that in March 2016 vs. March 2017, median sales price was almost identical ($259,750 in 2016 and $260,000 in 2017). We then saw a huge jump in April 2017 compared to April 2016. Remember that real estate sales typically take 30-60 days from offer acceptance to closing. So that April increase in sales price really began 30-60 days prior.

Why were prices higher this year? A large reason was due to inventory shortage. Here’s what the Number of New Listings looked like for each month for the past two years:

You’ll see in 2017 we didn’t see an increase in the number of new listings until May, when sellers finally recognized they should be capitalizing on the seller’s market! After the big jump in May, home sellers roughly kept on pace with 2016’s monthly number of new listings.

Here’s York County:

Unlike Cumberland County, York County didn’t see a month where median sales price was close to identical in 2017 compared to 2016 until December where the value was $248,100 in 2016 and $249,900 in 2017.

Sellers in York County didn’t realize they should be capitalizing on the inventory shortage until June, but only barely outpaced 2016 for the rest of the year.

Town-by-Town Breakdown

Let’s take a look at Portland and some of the surrounding towns.

Since Portland is the most populated city in Cumberland County (and Maine), I wanted to see how Portland fared compared to the whole of Cumberland County. See the table below.

Portland, Maine

January-December 2017

January-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Number of Sales

529

629

-15.9%

Median Sale Price

$286,000

$262,000

9.16%

Median Days on the Market

11

12

-8.33%

Number of New Listings

625

707

-11.6%

Not surprisingly, there was a more dramatic change in each category except for Median Days on the Market compared to Cumberland County as a whole. Most people like to look at the Median Sales Price, since that gives you a good idea of how much property values are fluctuating year-over-year. Portland saw a 9.16% increase in Median Sales Price, while the whole of Cumberland County saw a 6.78% increase.

This got me thinking. How do some of the surrounding towns compare? To minimize the chance of information overload, I took out Median Days on the Market and Number of New Listings for the surrounding towns. I started with the bordering towns and then went outward to include towns where I have interest. The interest in each town could be due to listings I had in 2017, and where I anticipate having listings in 2018, or just simple curiosity. In 2017 I sold homes in Freeport, Naples, Limington, Sebago, etc., but truth be told, I didn’t want to overload this blog post with a ridiculously large number of towns. If I missed your hometown, and you want to see data, please let me know!

January-December 2017

January-December 2016

% Change Year-Over-Year

Cape Elizabeth

Number of Sales

159

147

8.16%

Median Sale Price

$469,750

$462,500

7.41%

Cumberland

Number of Sales

163

188

-13.30%

Median Sale Price

$410,781

$360,219

14.04%

Falmouth

Number of Sales

195

202

-3.47%

Median Sale Price

$480,000

$467,750

2.26%

Gorham

Number of Sales

253

247

2.43%

Median Sale Price

$295,000

$265,000

11.32%

Gray

Number of Sales

144

152

-5.26%

Median Sale Price

$247,550

$219,950

12.55%

New Gloucester

Number of Sales

76

71

7.04%

Median Sale Price

$237,250

$219,000

8.33%

North Yarmouth

Number of Sales

70

50

40%

Median Sale Price

$377,500

$328,750

14.83%

Portland

Number of Sales

529

629

-15.9%

Median Sale Price

$286,000

$262,000

9.16%

Scarborough

Number of Sales

350

348

0.57%

Median Sale Price

$401,250

$369,000

8.74%

South Portland

Number of Sales

302

310

-2.58%

Median Sale Price

$261,500

$252,750

3.46%

Standish

Number of Sales

157

144

9.03%

Median Sale Price

$234,000

$220,100

6.32%

Westbrook

Number of Sales

243

274

-11.31%

Median Sale Price

$235,000

$224,700

4.58%

Windham

Number of Sales

289

321

-9.97%

Median Sale Price

$254,500

$235,000

8.3%

Yarmouth

Number of Sales

133

114

16.67%

Median Sale Price

$465,500

$414,750

12.24%

Not surprisingly, every town chosen saw an increase in Median Sales Price in 2017 compared to 2016. Historically, communities with good to great school districts tend to have property values that are more stable in down years, and increase more when the economy is good. While I wouldn’t consider any of the towns listed as being part of a poor school district, what surprised me the most is that Falmouth saw the lowest increase in Median Sales Price at just 2.62%. Gray meanwhile, a town in a school district that tends to get lower ratings than some of the surrounding communities, saw an increase of 12.55%.

Take a look at the values of the Median Sales Price in these two towns. Falmouth’s was double that of Gray’s in 2016 ($467,500 compared to $219,950), and only slightly less than double in 2017 ($480,000 compared to $247,550). Of all the towns listed, Falmouth had the highest Median Sales Price in 2016 and second highest (behind Cape Elizabeth) in 2017. Despite the more dramatic increase in sales price, Falmouth still attracts those with more spending power.

Let’s continue on that “great school district” train of thought. Take a look at increases at Cumberland, North Yarmouth, and Yarmouth. These three towns had three of the top four increases in Median Sales Price. They also have had nationally ranked school systems in recent years. Cape Elizabeth, the other town that has been seen on national rankings, saw a 7.1% increase, but jumped Falmouth as having the top Median Sales Price in 2017 at $496,750.

With 2017 now behind us, I don’t see any slowing down! 2018 is poised to be another record breaking year!

Number of Sales: The number of properties sold.

Median Sales Price: The midway final price of all properties sold. Half sold for more, half sold for less.

Median Days on the Market: The midway point of days between a listing going on the market and accepting an offer. Half were on the market longer; half were on the market for less time.

Number of New Listings New home listings during the month(s) specified.

Note: Sales were compiled on January 8, 2017, from Maine MLS data from sales of single family homes. To see complete data, go to http://TheGoffReport.DerekGoff.com.
Data based on information from the Maine Real Estate Information System, Inc. (d/b/a Maine Listings) for the period January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016 and January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017.

Posted on January 15, 2018 at 9:23 AM
Derek Goff | Category: Cumberland County, The Goff Report, York County | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,